Apple’s first foldable phone is set for 2026 and UBS thinks it may be as cheap as $1,800. Here’s what else to know

Apple is on the cusp of launching its first foldable iPhone, with the supply chain reportedly close to finalizing specifications for a book-style “iPhone Fold” targeting a release in the second half of 2026. This move marks Apple’s entry into a segment that, while still niche, is poised for transformation as the world’s most influential smartphone brand steps in. UBS surveyed the landscape in an analyst note: Unfolding the implications of an iPhone Fold launch.

UBS’ teardown analysis of Samsung’s Z Fold SE (BOM cost: $790) suggests Apple’s iPhone Fold could achieve a BOM cost of $759—about 4% lower—thanks to cost savings on memory, application processors, and camera modules, even as premium materials drive up casing and hinge costs.

Initial production is expected to be limited, with estimates ranging from 10 million to 15 million units for the first wave. This cautious approach reflects both the technical complexity of foldable devices and the high price point, which analysts see as a major hurdle to mass adoption. Early reports suggest the iPhone Fold could be priced between $2,000 and $2,400, making it Apple’s most expensive phone to date and positioning it as a premium, aspirational product. However, UBS says Apple’s cost discipline may allow it to price the device at the lower end of the anticipated range ($1,800–$2,000), with contribution margins of 53%–58%, in line with Samsung’s foldables and well above the iPhone 16 series.

Apple could lift the market up with it

The iPhone Fold’s launch is expected to have a positive ripple effect across Apple’s supply chain, including companies like Amphenol, Hirose, TDK, Avary, and SDI. Many of these firms are currently trading below historical valuation averages, and the visibility of a new product ramp could boost sentiment and share prices. The iPhone Fold’s unique design is set to benefit several key players:

• Display Panels: Samsung Display is expected to be the primary supplier, with capacity to produce up to 15 million 7-inch foldable OLED panels annually. LG Display may also play a role as Apple diversifies its sources.
• Casing and Hinges: The device will likely feature a titanium casing and a liquid metal hinge, with suppliers such as Lens Technology, Amphenol, and Hon Hai (Foxconn) positioned to benefit from higher bill-of-materials (BOM) wallet share.
• EMS Providers: Hon Hai is expected to handle initial assembly, with Luxshare as a secondary partner, reflecting Apple’s strategy of leveraging its established manufacturing ecosystem.

The foldable state of play

Apple’s entry is likely to accelerate the adoption of foldable devices, not just in smartphones but also in tablets and notebooks over the medium to long term. The company’s late-mover advantage—leveraging a mature supply chain and refined technology—could help it manage costs and deliver a more polished product, potentially expanding the market beyond its current niche.

The global foldable smartphone market has shown signs of fatigue, though, with growth slowing and even a projected decline in 2025. High prices and lingering concerns about durability and usability continue to limit mainstream appeal. However, Apple’s brand power and ecosystem integration could be the catalyst needed to reignite interest and drive broader adoption.

Samsung remains the global leader in this segment, with the most comprehensive foldable lineup and ongoing innovation in form factors. Oppo, OnePlus, Google, Motorola, Honor, and Vivo are strong competitors, each offering unique takes on foldable design and features. Tecno and other Chinese brands, as well as Samsung, are pushing the envelope with tri-fold and ultra-thin concepts. More brands are introducing “Fan Edition” and entry-level foldables to broaden market access. Apple’s anticipated entry in 2026 is expected to further accelerate mainstream adoption and innovation.

For this story, Fortune used generative AI to help with an initial draft. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing. 

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com