‘Bend, bend, bend, but make sure it doesn’t break’

Wednesday (21 May) may prove to be one of the most consequential for South Africa in recent memory, and could have significant positive or negative consequences.

President Cyril Ramaphosa will meet his US counterpart, Donald Trump, in what promises to be a politically charged encounter. The outcome will significantly impact our country’s economic trajectory and international standing.

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The backdrop is tense, and the most pertinent point on the agenda will be the Afrikaner refugee affair. Trump’s narrative of a white genocide and the unlawful seizure of their land is patently untrue.

However, it will take some exceptional diplomacy to convince Trump of the actual facts, as it would mean that he would have to admit he was wrong – something that doesn’t happen often. This is a lesson much more astute world leaders, such as former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, have learnt the hard way – but more about that a bit later.

Many facts may complicate the argument.

While there isn’t a white genocide, South Africa has one of the highest murder rates in the world. There aren’t seizures of Afrikaners’ land, but a controversial Expropriation Act legalises expropriation without compensation.

Ramaphosa is bound to argue that white farmers are not victims of targeted attacks and that all South Africans are victims. Still, he also will have to face up to the fact that South Africa has one of the highest murder rates in the world – an “equality before crime” argument.

According to the South African Police Service, 27 494 people were murdered in 2023 — equivalent to 75 murders per day, or 45.3 per 100 000 people. By contrast, the FBI states that only 19 252 Americans were murdered in 2023, translating to a significantly lower murder rate of 5.7 per 100 000.

The South African murder rate is insane, and there is probably an argument somewhere that all South Africans should qualify for refugee status. Ramaphosa must also acknowledge that South Africa cannot protect its citizens. Good luck with that argument.

Ramaphosa will probably also struggle to explain the fine print of the Expropriation Act. If it is not the government’s intention to expropriate land without compensation, why is it in the act? Good luck with that one, too.

I could not help but smile when Khumbudzo Ntshavheni, Minister in The Presidency, said last week she expects the meeting to be cordial because Trump “invited” (and not summoned) Ramaphosa to the White House.

“There is no one who invites a guest to mistreat them. We are expecting the highest level of decorum and the necessary protocols to be accorded,” she said.

Trump’s political history suggests otherwise. His disdain for diplomatic niceties – as seen in past interactions with leaders such as Merkel and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky – is well documented. Whether Ramaphosa can withstand a similar confrontation without domestic or international fallout remains to be seen.

But Ramaphosa is undoubtedly doing a lot of introspection and preparing well for the meeting.

Angela Merkel

Many people invoke the Zelensky example to illustrate the kind of unpredictable, often combative reception Ramaphosa might face in the Oval Office.

However, a better comparison might be Angela Merkel, who had a very confrontational encounter with Trump during his first term as US president.

Merkel offers detailed insights into several interactions with Trump in her autobiography, Freedom: Memoirs 1954–2021, published last year.

Germany was (and remains) the third-largest economy in the world and the largest in Europe, and Merkel was truly a world leader – yet even she failed to navigate Trump’s temperament.

She recalls her first meeting with Trump in 2017 in the Oval Office, where topics such as refugees in Germany and threats of tariffs were discussed.

Following the strained meeting, there was a press engagement, where a reporter asked whether they could shake hands for a photograph. Trump refused.

“Instead of stoically bearing it, I whispered to him that we should shake hands again. As soon as the words left my mouth, I shook my head at myself. How could I forget that Trump knew precisely what he was doing? He wanted to give people something to talk about with his behaviour, while I had acted as though I were having a conversation with someone completely normal,” she wrote.

Merkel added that upon reflection, she realised she initially considered Trump “completely normal” but quickly realised he was “emotional”.

“It seemed his main aim was to make the person he was talking to feel guilty.”

She furthermore states that Trump saw everything through the lens of a real estate developer, which he was before entering politics.

“For him, all countries were rivals in which the success of one meant the failure of another. He didn’t think that prosperity could be increased for all through cooperation.”

True to form, Trump informed Merkel a few weeks later that the US would withdraw from the Paris Climate Accord, just before she was due to host the G20 Summit.

Dismayed, Merkel turned to the late Pope Francis for advice.

“Without naming names, I asked him how he would approach fundamentally opposed opinions within a group of important personalities. He understood immediately and said simply: ‘Bend, bend, bend, but make sure it doesn’t break.’”

Hopefully, Ramaphosa will take note of this divine advice.

Multiple items on the agenda

Remember, the meeting will not only focus on the Afrikaner refugees. It will also include Agoa and tariffs; hopefully, the discussion will reach these agenda points.

However, Ramaphosa is no stranger to high-stakes diplomacy. He may well enter the Oval Office with a fact-based and dignified approach, but he may find that facts alone are not enough to sway an “emotional” Trump who, in Merkel’s words, only wants to make him “feel guilty”.

Hopefully, Ramaphosa will leave the Oval Office with a handshake. If he does, it may well be his finest hour – assuming the meeting lasts that long.

Wednesday is South Africa’s D-Day – but Ramaphosa enters a high-stakes game without a trump card or even much of a hand.

He will have to play the man.

Read:
US snub to SA’s G-20 may be a gift to Brics nations
Tariffs have essentially nullified Agoa – Tau
Rubio says he’ll skip G20 meeting in SA over land law
US firms in South Africa call for ‘cool heads’ in Trump spat
Trump threatens South Africa on land expropriation
US agencies banned from working on SA G20 Summit – report

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