China’s exports to US fall most since 2020 despite trade truce

Chinese exports rose less than expected last month as the worst drop in shipments to the US in more than five years counteracted strong demand from other markets.

Exports rose 4.8% from a year ago to $316 billion in May, slower than the 6% median growth forecast in a survey of economists. Imports fell 3.4% for a third straight month of declines, leaving a trade surplus of $103 billion, according to official data Monday.

China’s exports to the US fell 34.4%, according to Bloomberg News calculations, the most since February 2020. That was despite a truce reached May 12 that gave temporary relief to Chinese imports that would have faced as much as 145% duties.

That sharp decline offset a 11% rise in exports to other countries, showing the heft of the world’s largest economy even as Beijing reduced its reliance on direct shipments to the market after the previous trade war during Donald Trump’s first term.

Still, the overall growth in exports will continue to support the economy, with the record trade surplus of almost half a trillion dollars so far in 2025 a boost to companies facing weak demand at home. In the second half of the year, however, China could face a drag on growth should risks to global trade materialize.

The US is threatening to raise tariffs on many countries from early July and on China from August. That could slash demand for Chinese products destined directly for the US and also used as inputs into other nations’ manufactured goods.

Even if China and other nations are able to strike a deal with the Trump administration, demand from the US and elsewhere might still weaken as companies slow down their frantic purchasing aimed at beating the tariffs.

© 2025 Bloomberg

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