Gold on Rise: Yellow metal could touch Rs 1.1 lakh/10 grams by 2025-end?

Gold prices in India are expected to keep going up, likely trading between Rs 99,500 and Rs 110,000 per 10 grams for the rest of 2025.

Looking ahead, experts say prices could rise even more, reaching Rs 110,000 to Rs 125,000 per 10 grams in the first half of 2026, according to ICICI Bank’s Economic Research Group.

"Risks to these projections are to the upside if the INR trades at a much depreciated level against the USD than our projections. We have assumed an average range of 87.00-89.00 for the USD/INR pair for the period," noted the report.

"If geo-political tensions intensify, there could be a further upside to these ranges," the report added.

Bullish outlook amid US economic concerns

Continued worries about structural weaknesses in the US economy are expected to keep gold prices trading with a bullish bias in the medium term. While there has been a slight easing in safe-haven buying, medium-term bullish expectations for the yellow metal remain intact. The anticipated gains are closely tied to developments in the United States.

Gold's next leg of the rally will be influenced by US developments, including the anticipated 125 basis points of Fed rate cuts over 2025-26 and ongoing diversification by central banks and investors away from the US dollar, as per the report.

Domestic demand boosts prices

In India, gold prices have been rising due to a weaker rupee and strong investment demand. Gold imports jumped from $1.8 billion in June to $4.0 billion in July 2025, showing strong local demand ahead of the festive season.

Gold ETFs have also seen big inflows this year, almost doubling compared to last year. According to the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI), July saw a net inflow of Rs 12.6 billion. While this was lower than June’s Rs 20.8 billion, the total for the year so far, Rs 92.8 billion, is more than double the Rs 45.2 billion recorded during the same period last year.

Even with this positive outlook, the report warned that risks are tilted to the upside. If the rupee weakens beyond the expected 87–89 range against the US dollar, gold prices could climb even higher.