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It’s been two years and nine months since OpenAI’s ChatGPT launched.
What was once dismissed as a chatbot kicked off an AI boom of epic proportions and—as billions have flowed into AI startups of all kinds—OpenAI has become the most valuable startup ever, less than a month ago hitting a $500 billion valuation.
This week, at Fortune Brainstorm Tech, I brought my most pressing questions to GV CEO and managing partner David Krane and Greycroft cofounder and managing partner Dana Settle. Krane and Settle are investors, of course—but they’re also stewards of key VC institutions, at a time when both venture capital and startups are in flux. Where is the AI boom right now?
“No question: we’re early,” said Krane. “Third pitch, top of the second inning, driving at Formula One speeds.” He added: “This is a pitch clock that we’ve never seen before. This game is moving incredibly quickly, for better and for worse.”
Settle also thinks it’s still exceptionally early.
“It’s absolutely a long cycle, and we’re at the very, very, very beginning,” said Settle, adding: “I’m always thinking about the metaphor, back to Internet days. And I don’t know, maybe AOL? I think that’s where we are, but it’s moving so much faster.”
This AI-fueled speed raises questions, both said, about the most productive places to focus. As Krane put it: “With all this speed, with this abundance of capital deployment, are we directing people, directing these financial resources at the most important problems and the biggest opportunities?” Both Settle and Krane have seen AI startups (like OpenEvidence) gaining traction in healthcare, while Krane emphasized law and Settle’s seen applications in manufacturing and defense.
One thing that’s clear, though, is that some startup norms of the last decade are shifting. Small teams, they said, are back.
“We are having a bit of a renaissance of the power of small teams,” said Krane, who was employee number 84 at Google. “I remember looking at teams across the Valley with hundreds of employees working on a fairly narrowly-defined problem and not succeeding. And then in early Google, there were two or three of the right researchers and engineers working on the exact same problem. Time and again, Google would find success.”
It’s a bit of a Back to The Future moment.
“At the beginning of the venture capital world, it was two people in a garage,” said Settle. “So, maybe we’re just back to that. The cost to start a company went from $10 million to $100,000 overnight.”
That said, there are inevitably and completely new dynamics playing out. I closed by asking if Krane and Settle: Will we see a trillion-dollar startup? Neither hesitated, agreeing immediately, “absolutely.”
See you Monday,
Allie Garfinkle
X: @agarfinks
Email: alexandra.garfinkle@fortune.com
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This story was originally featured on Fortune.com
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