Anil Singhvi Market Strategy (June 16): How to trade Nifty 50, Nifty Bank today? Key levels to track & more

7 hours ago 1

Anil Singhvi Market Strategy: Zee Business Managing Editor Anil Singhvi expects support for the Nifty50 index at 24,550-24,675 levels and a stronger support zone at 24,450-24,525 levels on Monday, June 16. For the Nifty Bank, the market wizard expects support at 55,000-55,150 levels and a stronger support zone at 54,825-54,950 levels.

How market guru Anil Singhvi sums up trade setup:

Global: Negative
FII: Negative
DII: Positive
F&O: Neutral
Sentiment: Cautious
Trend: Positive
FII long positions at 19 per cent vs 20 per cent before Friday's session
Nifty put-call ratio (PCR) at 0.89 vs 0.92
Nifty Bank PCR at 0.73 vs 0.83
Volatility index India VIX up 7.5 per cent at 15.08

The market wizard expects a higher zone at 24,750-24,850 levels and a strong sell zone at 24,900-25,000 levels for the headline index.

For the banking index, he expects a higher zone at 55,750-55,925 levels and a profit-booking zone at 56,000-56,150 levels.

Will selling continue with war amid mounting global geopolitical tensions?

No sign of Israel-Iran war ending anytime soon
It is difficult for Dalal Street to sustain higher levels
One should watch out for movement in crude oil prices
Crude oil is the biggest signal for Dalal Street
The situation could worsen if other countries participate in the war

Why are FIIs selling?

FIIs were actually in a buying mood
They had been buying consistently in cash for three days before the war began
Even now, their selling is marginal
On Friday, they offloaded shares to the tune of Rs 1,264 crore in the cash market
Overall, FII selling was around Rs 4,700 crore, including cash, stocks, and index futures
DIIs have been on a record buying spree, net inflows have continued for 19 sessions in a row
On Friday, DIIs bought Rs 3,041 crore
FIIs have made good profits from higher levels and rupee strength over the last three months

D-Street avoided a steep fall on Friday--what next?

The market reacts instantly and strongly the first time news breaks
However, repeated news on the same subject triggers subsided market response
Recoveries and rallies follow war de-escalation signs
The domestic economy is strong--this is why Friday's opening was at the day's low but closing at the day's high
Fresh weaknes can be expected only if the situation worsens significantly
For now, the market may stay weak and volatile but not panicky

Why is 24,450 such a crucial level?

Nifty has staged a strong recovery from the 24,464 low (May 22)
On Friday, the headline index took support around the 24,473 level
Fresh weakness will only come if the index sustains and closes below 24,450
Nifty Bank made a strong recovery from the 54,576 low (May 22)
Major weakness in the banking index can be expected only if it sustains and closes below 54,576
One can expect profit-booking in Nifty between 24,950 and 25,150 and in Nifty Bank between 56,400 and 56,625

What should traders and investors do?

Traders

Whether long or short, maintain strict stop-losses and manage risk carefully
Keep intraday positions to a minimum
Avoid overnight positions, if possible

Investors

It is impossible to predict how and when geopolitical tensions will start or end
One thing is clear: After tensions ease, a recovery follows usually
Until then, investors must hold on to their positions through any dips
Such events offer a golden opportunity to invest during the fall
Lighten positions if your investment is for the short term
No need to worry if invested for a year or more

ANIL SINGHVI MARKET STRATEGY | How to trade Nifty Bank and Nifty50?

For existing long positions:

Nifty intraday stop loss at 24,450 and closing stop loss at 24,600
Nifty Bank intraday and closing stop loss at 55,000

For existing short positions:

Nifty intraday and closing stop loss at 25,000
Nifty Bank intraday stop loss at 55,750 and closing stop loss at 56,100

For new positions in Nifty50:

The best range to buy Nifty is 24,475-24,625 with a stop loss at 24,400 for targets of 24,675, 24,725, 24,800, 24,850, 24,900 and 24,950
Aggressive traders can sell Nifty in the 24,850-25,000 range with a strict stop loss at 25,150 for targets of 24,750, 24,725, 24,675, 24,625, 24,550 and 24,500

For new positions in Nifty Bank:

Aggressive traders can buy Nifty Bank in the 55,000-55,150 range with a strict stop loss at 54,800 for targets of 55,300, 55,450, 55,525, 55,600, 55,675, 55,800 and 55,925
Aggressive traders can sell Nifty Bank in the 55,900-56,100 range with a strict stop loss at 56,200 for targets of 55,800, 55,675, 55,525, 55,350, 55,250, 55,150 and 55,050

Stocks in F&O ban

New in ban: HUDCO, Manappuram Finance
Already in ban: Birlasoft Tech, CDSL, IEX, IREDA, RBL Bank, Titagarh, Chambal Fertilisers, AB Fashion
Out of ban: Hindustan Copper

Stocks of the Day: PI Industries, NMDC

PI Industries

Buy PI Industries futures for targets of Rs 4,025, Rs 4,075 and Rs 4,150 with a stop loss at Rs 3,950

Agro chemcial stocks are appearing to be in a strong uptrend
Morgan Stanley has upgraded the stock to 'overweight' from 'equal-weight' while raising its target to Rs 5,000 from Rs 3,524

NMDC

Sell NMDC futures for targets of Rs 69.5 and Rs 68 with a stop loss at Rs 72