Taliban's ghost: Here is why Pakistan and Afghanistan can't escape their shared war

Ceasefire talks purpose to calm tensions betwixt the 2 South Asian nations, but longstanding mistrust lingers

The equipped clashes betwixt Pakistan and Afghanistan successful October on the 2,640-km-long Durand Line earnestly aggravated the chronic instability successful this region. Friends of some countries took enactment to forestall a further deterioration of the situation.

The Taliban, which resisted the US, tin defy Pakistan's power, which would interest those who person Pakistan's payment successful mind. Turkey and Qatar are mediating a dialogue betwixt the 2 countries, which reached a ceasefire agreement connected October 18-19.  However, caller clashes erupted conscionable a week later, resulting successful casualties connected some sides.

Trkiye, which has played a relation successful the bid process successful Afghanistan arsenic the struggle determination has unfolded implicit the years, is pushing for the ceasefire to beryllium sustained and has announced that a higher-level Afghanistan-Pakistan is scheduled for November 6 to finalize however the statement volition beryllium monitored. 

Pakistan's defence minister, Khawaja Muhammad Asif, has stated that Islamabad's information successful the talks was astatine the petition of Qatar and Turkey and insisted that immoderate statement indispensable include "clear, verifiable, and effectual action" by Afghanistan against groups utilizing Afghan territory to onslaught Pakistan. If the anticipation is that the Taliban volition physically enactment against the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), often referred to arsenic the Pakistani Taliban, this is improbable to beryllium the case.

Zabihullah Mujahid, the spokesperson for the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, asserted that the Taliban desires bully relations with its neighbors, including Pakistan, and that some parties person agreed to conscionable again and volition sermon the outstanding issues.

Painful history

The past of Pakistan-Afghanistan tensions is long. For decades, Pakistan has been progressive successful the interior affairs of its neighbor. Islamabad has a agelong past of intervening successful Afghanistan, either to assistance oust a authorities determination that it could not power oregon to assistance instal a authorities determination that it could control.

In a sense, this was inevitable due to the fact that the Durand Line, which was drawn by the British assemblage powerfulness successful 1893, divided the Afghan tribes populating the portion artificially. The Afghans person ne'er accepted this line. Fencing and checkpoints by Pakistan to asseverate territorial sovereignty and power the accepted escaped question of radical crossed the borderline person been a root of tension.

Instability successful Pashtun-dominated Afghanistan affects Pakistan, and the different mode astir - instability successful Pakistan's adjoining Pashtun tribal areas besides affects Afghanistan. This explains wherefore Pakistan seeks to get a ascendant relation successful Afghanistan arsenic astir indispensable if it is to win in stabilizing its restive and violence-prone frontier areas.

To guarantee a grip connected Afghanistan's polity, Islamabad has sought to forestall India from processing links and gaining power successful Afghanistan, which is wherefore New Delhi is denied transit rights to landlocked Afghanistan done Pakistani territory.

In this context, the caller escalation betwixt Pakistan and Afghanistan is peculiarly notable, arsenic it coincided with Afghan Foreign Minister Muttaqi's sojourn to India. Pakistan expressed its displeasure by launching drone attacks connected Kabul connected the precise archetypal time of Muttaqi's trip.

Meanwhile, arsenic an result of this visit, India announced the elevation of its Technical Mission successful Kabul to an embassy led by a complaint d'affaires, though it stopped abbreviated of formally recognizing the Taliban government. Additionally, India plans to resume its improvement projects successful Afghanistan. 

While relations betwixt Taliban-ruled Afghanistan and India are improving, ties with Pakistan are deteriorating, mostly owed to Islamabad's argumentation toward Kabul.

Cold War rivalry

As portion of its strategy to dainty Afghanistan arsenic its strategical backyard, Pakistan chose to squad up with the US and Saudi Arabia successful the 1980s to conflict Soviet forces successful Afghanistan. Unfortunately, jihad against the communist authorities was unleashed for the archetypal clip in the region, with consequences that endure. Pakistan opposed the beingness of pro-Soviet governments successful Afghanistan, arsenic it could not power them. The US, successful turn, could not judge its Cold War rival extending its geopolitical beingness successful the South Asian region.

Even aft the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan successful 1989, Pakistan remained progressive successful shaping Afghanistan's governmental future. A prolonged play of internecine struggle betwixt the Afghan mujahedeen and the Soviet-backed authorities successful Kabul followed the Soviet withdrawal. That the cardinal leaders of the Afghan mujahedeen were based successful Pakistan speaks for itself.

Pakistan played a relation successful the emergence of the Taliban. This caller Islamist force, which emerged successful 1994 from spiritual seminaries successful Pakistan, took powerfulness successful Afghanistan successful 1996 with Islamabad's support. Washington did not reason the emergence of this extremist unit that resorted to coercion to summation power. The US in information tried to research lipid pipeline projects done Afghan territory. Having actively supported jihadi groups against the Soviet Union, the US would person had nary intrinsic aversion to utilizing extremist Islamic groups similar the Taliban for geopolitical and different ends successful the region.

If Pakistan supported the Taliban, the Northern Alliance - an confederation of taste groups successful the bluish portion of the state comprising Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbeks, and Turkmens - received enactment from Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, arsenic they feared the spillover of coercion and Islamism from Afghanistan into their countries. Shia Iran had misgivings astir the Sunni extremist ideology of the Taliban. The Islamic extremist ideology of the Taliban (it blew up the elephantine Buddha statues of Bamiyan, portion of the practice of Indian civilization, successful 2001) and its usage of panic to summation powerfulness presented a peculiar situation to India.

New Delhi had heavy concerns astir the nexus betwixt Pakistan and the Taliban and however that mightiness reenforce the violent menace to India. This was a play during which externally supported panic attacks connected targets successful India were multiplying. The hijacking of India's IC-814 successful 1999 and the way in which the Taliban handled it validated those concerns.

The Taliban fall

The Taliban were ousted from powerfulness successful 2001 by US subject enactment aft the September 11 violent attacks that twelvemonth connected US soil, ostensibly due to the fact that the Taliban refused to manus implicit Osama bin Laden, who was sheltered successful Afghanistan and was seen arsenic the mastermind of these attacks.

From 2004 onwards, Afghanistan was ruled nether US tutelage by President Hamid Karzai, followed by President Ashraf Ghani. During this period, India established itself arsenic a improvement spouse of Afghanistan, undertaking infrastructure, humanitarian, and societal development, education, and capacity-building projects successful assorted parts of the state - adjacent those susceptible to the Taliban - with an concern of implicit $3 billion.

These Indian inroads into Afghanistan were a root of strain successful Pakistan-Afghanistan relations due to the fact that they thwarted Pakistan's ambitions to get strategical extent against India successful Afghanistan, which was imaginable lone if Pakistan could superintend Afghanistan's relations with India. With the US subject assisting the Afghan authorities successful warring Taliban incursions, Pakistan had to play a cautiously orchestrated crippled of remaining connected the close broadside of the US portion besides assisting the Taliban to regroup successful Pakistan and statesman the gradual process of warring its mode backmost to powerfulness successful Kabul. The Taliban achieved that extremity yet successful 2021 with the precipitate withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan and the illness of President Ashraf Ghani's government.

Pakistan, of course, felt triumphant astatine the Taliban capturing powerfulness successful Afghanistan erstwhile again. The caput of its quality bureau adjacent played a relation successful the enactment of the authorities and the organisation of immoderate cardinal portfolios.

India, connected the different hand, had concerns astir the mode the US handed implicit powerfulness to the Taliban - without immoderate consultations with New Delhi. Leaving down immense amounts of weaponry, which India feared mightiness find its mode into the hands of terrorists backed by Pakistan, and much mostly speaking, the strengthening of spiritual extremism successful our vicinity and the imaginable of a renewed menace of Afghan ungraded being utilized for violent attacks against Indian territory, were sources of superior concern.

Pakistan's consciousness of governmental and strategical occurrence successful Afghanistan has proven to beryllium short-lived. It is striking however rapidly relations betwixt the 2 countries person deteriorated, particularly fixed Pakistan's relation successful facilitating the Taliban's instrumentality to powerfulness successful Kabul. Despite Afghanistan's dependence connected Pakistan arsenic a landlocked nation, this reliance has not made the Taliban much receptive to Pakistan's demands.

Ties betwixt Afghanistan and Pakistan person importantly deteriorated for respective reasons. One large origin is Pakistan's determination to deport 1.3 cardinal undocumented Afghans nether its Illegal Foreigners Repatriation Plan, which took effect connected September 1. Additionally, the TTP has allegedly been carrying retired violent attacks against Pakistani information forces from Afghan territory. Pakistan seeks Afghanistan's practice successful suppressing the TTP, but the Taliban are unwilling to comply, viewing the TTP arsenic an interior contented for Pakistan and adjacent denying that they run from Afghan soil.

Historically speaking, the semi-autonomous tribal areas of Pakistan bordering Afghanistan, which are populated by assorted Pashtun tribes, person traditionally been restive and person violently challenged Islamabad's authority. These tribes, successful North and South Waziristan successful particular, are besides religiously precise blimpish and privation a Sharia-based society. Ethnic divisions betwixt Pashtuns and Punjabis, who overwhelmingly predominate the Pakistani polity, adhd to the problems of governance successful these areas.

Since the aboriginal 2000s, the Pakistani subject has launched respective campaigns to combat militancy successful these areas, specified arsenic Operation Rah-e-Nijat successful South Waziristan successful 2009 against the Pakistani Taliban, involving tens of thousands of troops and causing the displacement of implicit 2 cardinal civilians. Operation Zarb-e-Azb was launched successful 2014 successful North Waziristan, and the latest Operation Sarbakaf was launched connected July 29, 2025, successful the Bajaur District against militants.

The TTP, which operates successful the tribal belt, is besides opposed to the 2018 merger of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) into the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa state - a determination that brought the portion nether the nonstop medication of the national authorities and ended its semi-autonomous status. The resurgent TTP has played a important relation in the caller equipped clashes betwixt Pakistan and Afghanistan and volition beryllium a cardinal factor in aboriginal negotiations betwixt the uneasy neighbors to stabilize bilateral ties.