Wall Street is poised for volatility today if it sees anything that looks like a vibe shift at The Fed

19 hours ago 1

S&P 500 futures were holding steady this morning prior to the opening bell in New York. Markets are likely to react to a big set of macro data dumps today: U.S. Q2 GDP, a new interest rate decision from the U.S. Federal Reserve, a new number from ADP on private payrolls. The Fed will be watched most closely—any signs of dissent or a change in tone from Chairman Powell will push stocks around.

S&P 500 futures were flat this morning after the index closed down 0.30% yesterday. There’s not a great deal of movement globally this morning—Europe and Asia are mixed but the movements are less than 1% either way so nothing to get excited about.

The VIX “fear” index, on the other hand, jumped more than 5% yesterday. It is not at an elevated level like it was in April but it suggests investors might be positioning themselves for some excitement today.

They are likely to get it.

In the next few hours we will get new official numbers on U.S. Q2 GDP, a new interest rate decision from the U.S. Federal Reserve, a new number from ADP on private payrolls, and personal consumption stats (tomorrow). Any surprises across that dashboard could push stocks around today.

In terms of the Fed, it is almost guaranteed that Chairman Jerome Powell will keep the rate at the 4.25%-plus level. What investors will be looking at are any changes in his statement or answers to questions after the announcement. Analysts are split on whether he will deliver rate cuts starting in September or push them off until later in the year.

Analysts are also looking for dissent within the Fed.

“The [Fed] decision is unlikely to be unanimous, and they expect two governors to dissent for the first time since 1993. Just before the blackout period Governor Waller reinforced his case for a July rate cut, while Vice Chair of Supervision Bowman earlier left open the door to supporting a cut if ‘upward pressures remain limited to goods prices,’” Jim Reid and his team at Deutsche Bank told their clients this morning.

One stockholder in particular will be loudly urging in favour of dissent inside the Fed: President Trump. The problem is that any Fed governor who agrees with him risks looking like a patsy, according to UBS’s Paul Donovan.

“The question is whether one can credibly disagree, without appearing as a political puppet. A case can be made for rate cuts (if one views US President Trump’s trade taxes as a heavier burden on US consumers). However, even if a Fed member sincerely believes that scenario, their dissent would almost inevitably be viewed as Trump twitching the political puppet strings in the background,” he wrote this morning.

Here’s a snapshot of the action prior to the opening bell in New York:

S&P 500 futures were up 0.28% this morning, premarket, after the index closed down 0.30% yesterday.
STOXX Europe 600 was up 0.17% in early trading.
The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was down 0.21% in early trading.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was flat at 0.049%.
China’s CSI 300 Index was flat at 0.019%.
The South Korea KOSPI was up 0.74%.
India’s Nifty 50 was up 0.24%.
Bitcoin is holding above $118K.