ISMA reaffirms 349 lakh tons production estimate for 2025-26 season

The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) on Thursday reaffirmed its earlier projection of gross sugar production of 349 lakh tons for the 2025-26 season. The reaffirmation came after a crop review based on fresh satellite imagery and ground reports.

The sugar organisation first released its preliminary 349 lakh tons estimate on July 31, 2025, which was prepared using pan-India satellite imagery and field-level assessments, assuming normal monsoon conditions.

It has now conducted a reassessment for Maharashtra and Karnataka procured in early September, using additional satellite data along with updates on prevailing crop conditions across major producing states.

ISMA noted that the outlook for these key sugar-producing states remains strong, with reservoir levels higher than last year and expectations of continued rainfall during the southwest and upcoming northeast monsoon.

State-wise assessments:

1) Favourable monsoon conditions in both Maharashtra and Karnataka, aided by abundant rainfall in August, have ensured healthy crop growth and normal development.

2) In Uttar Pradesh, crop conditions are reported to be significantly better than last year due to industry-level initiatives on cane development and the timely introduction of improved varieties, which resulted in healthier crops.

3) Tamil Nadu has also shown promising results and is expected to surpass earlier projections of both yield and sugar recovery.

4) Northern states like Punjab, Haryana, and Uttarakhand have faced flood-like conditions, which led to minor reductions in cane output.

ISMA said that the overall crop quality in Maharashtra, Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu is expected to compensate for the shortfall, keeping the national output projections stable.

"The improved cane quality in major producing states is supporting a marginal rise in output, but this is offset by small declines in flood-hit regions. As a result, the national sugar output estimate remains steady at 349 lakh tons for 2025-26," ISMA said in its statement.

ISMA added that it will reassess the crop conditions again in October 2025 and release its first advance estimate by November, considering the latest developments in rainfall, water availability, and harvesting trends.

The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA), also known as the Indian Sugar & Bio-energy Manufacturers Association, is the apex body representing the interests of private and public sector sugar mills in India. It was established in 1932.