SA agribusiness mood falls on animal disease, tariffs

A gauge measuring sentiment among South African agricultural businesses declined for a second straight quarter as the industry grapples with a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak and the new tariff regime in the US.

The confidence index compiled by the Agricultural Business Chamber, known as Agbiz, and the Industrial Development Corp fell to 63 points in the third quarter, from 65 in the prior three months.

“Most respondents highlighted the adverse effects of foot-and-mouth disease and trade frictions, with the US as their primary concerns,” the chamber said in a statement on Monday. “Some noted the long-running challenges, such as poor service delivery by municipalities and slow progress in releasing government land to beneficiaries with title deeds to stimulate agricultural expansion as limiting factors.”

Some South African exports to the US have been subjected to a 30% tariff since August 7 under a new dispensation imposed by President Donald Trump aimed at shaking up the global trade order. The duties are the highest on goods from any sub-Saharan African nation, and threaten the sustainability of the key agricultural and automotive industries.

“The recovery of South Africa’s farming sector will likely be uneven in 2025, with the livestock subsector under pressure, while other subsectors seem likely to grow,” said Wandile Sihlobo, Agbiz’s chief economist. “The dominance of geopolitical concerns in respondents’ views illustrates the strong dependence of South Africa’s agricultural sector on export markets and the need to diversify these markets.”

A sub-index tracking export volumes fell by 17 points to 43 in the three months, reflecting lingering concerns about the global trade environment, according to the chamber. A measure of general agricultural conditions declined by 13 points to 67, highlighting the challenges brought on by animal diseases, it said.

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